Polls, polls … and more polls

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Is it me or have the media become more obsessed with poll coverage in this presidential election cycle than ever before in the history of mass media in this country?

Of particular interest to me are a certain type of intraparty poll that measures candidates’ relative strength against each other.

These surveys drive me nuts. Bonkers, man!

Why? They’re meaningless.

Here’s the latest: NBC says Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a nine-point lead over Democratic Party primary rival U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. That’s nationally.

What, I ask, does that mean? Does that mean if we had a national political primary that Clinton would beat Sanders by nine percentage points?

Maybe. Except that we aren’t going through a national primary election cycle. Candidates are trudging through these primaries state by bloody state, where the voters in each state have different perspectives, different worries and concerns, different philosophies.

Wisconsin is going to have its Democratic and Republican primaries today. Sanders is favored at this moment to win the Democratic primary; U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is favored to win the GOP primary.

Still, the media keep reporting that Donald J. Trump holds a diminishing national lead over Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in a national poll of Republican voters.

I’m running out of ways to say this: I do not care about national intraparty polls. They are not relevant to anything.

Some TV pundits the other evening were saying that they perceive fewer “horse-race” questions coming from the media as the primary campaigns head toward the home stretch. They say they’re hearing more “policy-driven” questions … allegedly.

More policy and fewer polls, please.

 

Intrigue builds around Speaker Ryan

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Oh, how I love the intrigue that’s building around House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Will he “save” the Republican Party by emerging in Cleveland as the party’s compromise candidate for president of the United States?

Is the speaker going to toss aside every one of his (half-hearted) statements of non-interest in seeking the presidency?

This is fabulous! I am not going to predict what Ryan will do, but it certainly has me licking my chops at the chaos that would develop if the speaker actually jumps in.

Ryan keeps saying most of the things that would suggest he’s not going to run. But there remains wiggle room in every one of his so-called statements. The room ain’t huge. He’s not going to shake his booty while saying these things.

Every pundit since shortly after the Civil War keeps waiting for the so-called Shermanesque statement. You know what I mean. Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman said, “If nominated I will not run; if elected I will not serve.”

Everything the speaker has said so far falls so far short of that categorical disavowal of any interest in running for the presidency.

He told radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt today that “you have to run for president to be president. I am not running for president. Period. End of story.”

He is “not running for president.” Isn’t that what he said? It’s tantamount to the standard dodge that pols use when they don’t “intend to run.”

Let’s parse that for a second. I take that to mean that Ryan “is not running” today, in the present tense. He says not a single thing about what he might do this summer.

The only possible circumstance that is going to quell this “draft Ryan” talk is if Donald J. Trump wins enough delegates to sew up on the nomination on the first ballot.

Let’s remember that the speaker said he didn’t want to be speaker, either. Then the Republican House caucus drafted him to take the job as the nation’s top GOP elected official.

And the intrigue will continue.

RNC chairman warns Trump of ‘consequences’

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Reince Priebus has given Donald J. Trump fair warning.

He might face “consequences” if the fails to fall in line and support the Republican Party’s presidential nominee if it happens to be someone other than Trump his own self.

The RNC chairman might have little actual power to inflict damage on the still-presumed frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

Those consequences, though, could take on lives of their own if the convention in Cleveland gets out of hand.

Listen up, Donald.

Let’s flash back — shall we? — to 1972. The other major political party, the Democrats, had a raucous gathering in Miami, Fla. They had gone through a rough-and-tumble primary season and from the rubble of that protracted battle there emerged a candidate to seal the nomination.

U.S. Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota became the Democratic nominee. His campaign theme was as simple as Bernie Sanders’s theme is today: Bring the troops home from the Vietnam War, which Sen. McGovern opposed with every fiber of his being.

Well, he didn’t win the presidency that year. He lost it huge to President Nixon in that 49-state wipeout.

It might be that a partial reason for the huge loss was the timing of his acceptance speech.

The convention delegates had battled day and night over rules changes. McGovern’s forces had sought wholesale change in the rules, which usually are a sort of work in progress as the convention unfolds.

They fought, squabbled and bickered on the convention floor.

Finally, after all that fighting, Sen. McGovern strode to the podium and urged the nation to “come home, America.” It was quite a stirring speech. I watched him deliver it from my apartment in Portland, Ore., where I lived with the girl I had married less than a year earlier.

He gave the speech at 2 a.m. That’s 2 in the morning, man. It was 11 p.m. on the Left Coast. But he wasn’t really talking to us. His remarks were meant to  be heard by that big voter base back east.

A lot of those voters had hit the sack by the Sen. McGovern accepted his party’s nomination.

As I look back on it now, I figured that was a “consequence” of Democrats failing to have their ducks lined up.

There well might be a similar consequence this summer in Cleveland as Republicans gather to send their nominee into battle against the Democrats.

Will it be the work of Chairman Priebus? Maybe.

Then again, he might not have to do anything to make Trump pay for his rebellion.

 

 

 

C’mon, Bernie; show us your tax returns

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Sen. Bernie Sanders tries to make a lot of hay about his authenticity, that he’s just one of us, that he’s campaigning for the little guy.

I get his message as he battles Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

But this morning on CNN, the distinguished gentleman from Vermont fluffed a direct question from “State of the Union” host Jake Tapper: Why won’t you release your tax returns, as Secretary Clinton has done for the past eight years?

His answer? “My wife does our tax returns and I’ve been a little busy.”

OK, senator. Enough already.

Americans heard some kind of song-and-dance from Republican frontrunner Donald J. Trump, who said he couldn’t release his returns because he was being audited for the past 12 consecutive years. That, too, is a stretch.

However, these returns have become part of the effort to improve transparency among all the candidates running for president.

It seems to many of us that it’s especially critical to see the tax returns from candidates who keep purporting to be champions for “wage equality” and who keep blasting the “top 1 percent” of income-earners for getting rich while the rest of us are struggling to make ends meet.

Mrs. Sanders does his tax returns? They’ve been “busy”?

Get real, senator. If your returns are straightforward and uncomplicated as your campaign message would seem to imply, then releasing the records wouldn’t be that big a deal.

This, sir, simply goes with the territory. Candidates who ask voters to entrust them with governing the world’s richest and most powerful nation should expect demands to see if they, too, are living up to the high-minded rhetoric they espouse on the campaign trail.

 

Now … about the Democratic wackiness

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Almost all the political chatter of the past, oh, six months has been about how Donald J. Trump turned his Republican Party primary presidential candidacy from a joke to a matter of serious discussion.

Who among you really thought this guy ever — in a zillion years — would achieve GOP frontrunner status when he declared his candidacy this past summer? I didn’t either.

He has. Trump is beginning to wobble, though, because his glaring lack of study of the issues is finally catching up to him. He’s likely to get hammered in Wisconsin on Tuesday. Then it’s on to New York, where he figures to do better, if not real well.

OK, enough of that.

Those Democrats have produced their share of campaign wackiness, too.

Let me ask you this one: Who out there really and truly thought at the beginning of her campaign that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be challenged as strongly as she’s been challenged by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, the “democratic socialist”? I’m with you. I thought she was a shoo-in.

She’s been hammered by the right — as expected — over Benghazi, those “damn emails,” as Sanders has described them, and over an alleged lack of “authenticity.

But she’s also been pounded by the lefties. Those kids who’ve climbed aboard Bernie’s bandwagon because of his pledge to provide college education for everyone has helped lift this guy’s candidacy to heights never imagined when he started out.

Bernie well might win in Wisconsin this week. Then he goes to New York, which Clinton represented in the U.S. Senate after she served two terms as first lady.

Clinton’s task in Wisconsin is to keep the result fairly close; a blowout win by Sanders might light a serious wildfire in his campaign that could cause some serious trouble for Clinton in New York.

Clinton now has to win big in her “home state.” I put that in quotes because, as you know, she really didn’t spend much time there before being elected to the Senate in 2000. It’s that authenticity thing, aka “carpetbagging,” that keeps nipping at her.

Clinton remains miles ahead of Sanders in the delegate count. If she wins yu-u-u-u-u-ge in New York, then she is on track to sew the primary campaign up by the time it rolls around to California.

If she stumbles there after getting beat in Wisconsin, well, then we’ve got a different game.

Yesterday’s sure thing, thus, becomes a candidate in for the fight of her life.

Go figure.

I’m telling you that when historians over the next generation or two try to examine the impact of strange and weird presidential campaigns in this great country, they’re going to hold Campaign 2016 up as their starting point.

I’m not sure how it can get any stranger than what we’ve witnessed on both sides of the divide.

It probably will.

Is this when Trump’s campaign unravels? Hold that thought

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The Sunday television talk shows are full of discussion this morning about Donald J. Trump’s horrible week.

He provides three to five positions on abortion in the span of 48 hours.

Trump refuses to rule out the use of nuclear weapons against the Islamic State — even in Europe!

His campaign manager is arrested and charged with battery against a reporter.

He’s been pilloried, punched and pounded over all of this — and more!

Is this the end of the Donald Trump Phenomenon? Do not take this to the bank.

My own thoughts on this man’s presidential candidacy have been blown aside by almost every unpredictable circumstance imaginable.

I thought he was toast when he:

Denigrated U.S. Sen. John McCain’s heroic service during the Vietnam War.

Got into that hideous feud with TV journalist Megyn Kelly over her questioning his views on women during the first GOP presidential debate.

Made fun of a journalist’s physical disability.

Declared his intention to ban Muslims from entering the country because of their faith.

Announced his plan to build a giant wall along our entire southern border.

Insulted a former fellow Republican presidential candidate over her physical appearance.

Engaged in that childish series of debate put-downs with Sen. Marco Rubio.

What have I missed?

He keeps returning stronger than before. He energizes those who like how he “tells it like it is.”

I’ve seen the polling about how women view him unfavorably. I’ve read all the data about how this guy loses to Hillary Clinton big in a general election matchup.

None of it seems to matter to the Trumpsters who are as angry as he says he is.

Is this the most bizarre election cycle any of us ever have seen? For my money, uhh, yes … it is!

For that reason, I am not going to declare Donald Trump’s candidacy “dead at the scene.”

 

Sen. Moran reneges on call for Garland hearing

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I hereby take back all the nice things I said about U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.

Moran had earned my praise after he said that Supreme Court justice nominee Merrick Garland deserves a hearing and a confirmation vote by the U.S. Senate.

Then what does the senator do? He reneges on his earlier call, which I thought when he said it illustrated great courage from the conservative Republican lawmaker.

I hate that I have to retract those things I wrote. I always enjoy watching politicians go against the tide, buck the trend, go with their gut.

Now it turns out that Moran — who’s in zero danger of losing his Senate seat this fall — has joined with other Senate Republicans in resisting Garland’s nomination. Moran said Garland is too weak on Second Amendment issues.

My question is this: Didn’t he know that when he expressed his desire for the Senate to proceed with confirmation hearings and then an up-down vote?

Here is what I wrote the first time about Sen. Moran:

https://highplainsblogger.com/2016/03/sen-moran-stands-up-for-integrity/

I’m taking it all back.

 

Stay the course with AEDC

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Buzz David’s tenure as head of Amarillo’s leading economic development arm is about to end.

I read the newspaper account of his supposed “retirement” twice this afternoon and I’m left with a nagging takeaway: There seems to be more than meets the eye in his announced departure from the Amarillo Economic Development Corporation.

I don’t know the particulars. AEDC called his announcement a “retirement,” while David insists he’s going to stay in the economic development game after his tenure at AEDC ends late this month.

Whatever the case turns out to be, I want to declare that AEDC has succeeded so far in fulfilling its mission to bring jobs to Amarillo and the Panhandle and that David has been a major factor in that success.

The city should seek to find a suitable replacement, someone with the kind of economic development chops that David exhibited during his decade-plus as president and CEO of AEDC.

As for AEDC itself, my unsolicited advice to the Amarillo City Council is clear cut and unequivocal: Don’t mess with it.

I say this because of some careless talk around the city immediately after this past year’s municipal election that the AEDC board should resign en masse. That talk subsided immediately, for which I am grateful.

I had the chance to watch David up close for many years while I was working as editorial page editor of the Amarillo newspaper. I’ve had many discussions with him during that time and since my departure from the paper more than three years ago.

I consider David to be an impressive individual with loads of business savvy. If you ask him about criticism of certain projects AEDC brought to Amarillo, he’s straightforward and direct in answering them.

I once inquired about the Hilmar Cheese plant that AEDC awarded several million dollars to build in Dalhart. David’s response? The money was well-spent, given that the economic impact of that operation ripples far beyond Dallam and Hartley counties.

The Bell aircraft assembly operation came into being before David arrived at AEDC. It, too, has produced huge economic impact for the region. On David’s watch at AEDC, the operation has continued to expand.

AEDC’s strategy is to use the money it accrues from the half-cent municipal sales tax it collects and then doles it out to businesses interested in locating in Amarillo.

That strategy drew considerable scorn from the Dallas-Fort Worth media after Amarillo managed to lure the Bell aircraft operation from Tarrant County to its current location next door to Rick Husband Amarillo International Airport.

It worked! Period.

Yes, there have been some hiccups along the way. Businesses that set up shop here after receiving AEDC assistance have failed.

The bottom line, though, looks good.

I wish Buzz David well as he moves on to his next station in life.

Moreover, my hope is that the city doesn’t mess with the successes built by its economic development corporation.

 

The founders got it right with the judiciary

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Just how brilliant were the nation’s founders in establishing an “independent judiciary”?

I’ll offer you an example: Take a look at what’s happening in Kansas, where the legislature and the governor are seeking the power to impeach judges who rule incorrectly … in their view.

I want to follow up on an earlier blog post to make this observation about the relationship between the courts and the other arms of government.

The Kansas Supreme Court has become the target of efforts to impeach and remove judges. It seems the jurists have ruled against the wishes of legislators and Gov. Sam Brownback. The high court justices are appointed and then they stand for retention; if voters like the job they’re doing, they retain them; if they don’t, they remove them.

That’s not as bad a system as we have in Texas, where judges are elected on partisan ballots. Judges become politicians. They have to raise money and actually campaign for office. These days in Texas, if you’re a Democrat, you have virtually no chance of winning a statewide judgeship. It used to be the reverse, when Democrats were the kings and queens of the heap.

Back to the founders.

They set up a system that provided essentially for lifetime appointments to the federal judiciary. The Supreme Court is the prize job for any jurist in the land. You become independent and free of political pressure … at least that’s how the founders envisioned it.

Justices then are able to interpret the constitutionality of federal law according to how they view it. The good ones are able to dissect laws impartially and make judgments based on their knowledge of what the Constitution allows.

Too often, though, Supreme Court justices apply rigid standards. Conservatives such as the late Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas view themselves as “strict constructionists” who rely on what they believe were the founders’ original intent. Liberals such as the late Thurgood Marshall took another view. Justice Marshall prejudged every capital punishment appeal before ever hearing the case and he would always vote to grant the appeal. Why? He didn’t believe in capital punishment.

There have been many instances over the course of our history when justices become something other than what the presidents who appointed them thought they would be. President Eisenhower appointed Chief Justice Earl Warren and Associate Justice William Brennan, both of whom went on to become liberal giants of the court. President Nixon selected Justice Harry Blackmun, who later wrote the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion. President Kennedy appointed Justice Byron White, who then became a swing vote on the court who often sided with conservatives. President Ford’s pick, Justice John Paul Stevens, often sided with the court’s liberals.

I’ve just offered a few of many examples. You get the idea.

The independence of the federal judiciary, though, is a standard that states ought to follow. Otherwise, we are left with creating a highly political court system that becomes victimized — as the Kansas courts are becoming — to the whims of politicians who have agendas that have little to do with following the law.

The founding fathers didn’t create the “perfect Union” when they crafted the Constitution. They left out a lot of rights for many Americans, chief among them being women and African-Americans.

When it came to creating a federal judicial system that is intended to be unencumbered by politics, well, they got that one right.

U.S. senators who have to ratify these appointments often don’t understand that intent. In a broad sense, though, the federal judicial system works pretty much as it was designed.

Take heed, state politicians.

 

Judiciary is non-political, right? Uh, no

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It can be declared categorically — perhaps it should have been long ago — that the judicial branch of government is as political as the executive and the legislative branches.

The U.S. Senate is playing politics with President Obama’s selection of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.

Now there’s this, in Kansas.

The state legislature is considering a bill that would call for the impeachment of state supreme court justices if they seek to “usurp” the power of the legislature or the governor.

In other words, if the state’s highest court rules differently from what the legislature or the governor believes, the justices are subject to being kicked off the bench.

What an extraordinary — and ham-handed — approach to governing.

Kansas judges are appointed and then are subject to retention elections during their tenure on the bench. Conservative activists and politicians want voters to reshape the court by kicking four justices out who they believe have ruled the wrong way on key issues. Therefore, voters have the power already to decide which justices should stay and which ones should go.

The Republican-controlled Kansas legislature is hoping voters this fall will tilt the court more toward the majority of lawmakers’ liking. So, why seek to enact this measure that liberalizes impeachment proceedings against the state’s judicial branch?

As the New York Times reported: “Gov. Sam Brownback and other conservative Republicans have expressed outrage over State Supreme Court decisions that overturned death penalty verdicts, blocked anti-abortion laws and hampered Mr. Brownback’s efforts to slash taxes and spending, and they are seeking to reshape a body they call unaccountable to the right-tilting public.”

It’s no longer left to the state’s highest judicial authority to interpret the state’s constitution as it sees fit. It now has an extra layer of oversight coming from the legislative and executive branches to ensure that the court rules “correctly.”

This is political conservatism? It sounds and looks much more like activism in the extreme.