Tag Archives: public opinion polling

national news

Polling data = real-time snapshot

All the polling data we are seeing these days showing a neck-and-neck race between President Joe Biden and the man he defeated in 2020 remind me of historical precedent.

Which is to say that today’s polling data don’t mean squat this far out from an upcoming election.

Yes, I have commented on my frustration that Donald Trump even can collect 35 to 40% of the electorate’s favor, given all he has said, done and demonstrated since he became a politician in 2015.

But I want to revisit some recent presidential polling history to remind you of how volatile these polls can become.

Remember that public opinion polls are merely a real-time snapshot of what is on people’s minds. Opinions change.

Prior to the 1984 election, Walter Mondale was seen as a legitimate challenger to President Reagan. The president was re-elected with an 18% margin and a 49-state Electoral College wipeout. In 1992, Ross Perot actually led President George H.W. Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. Perot finished with 19% of the vote and zero Electoral College votes, while Bill Clinton breezed to election.

Four years later, Sen. Bob Dole was neck-and-neck with the president, but then lost decisively. In 2008, Sen. John McCain was seen as a possible winner against Sen. Barack Obama; it didn’t happen. Obama was in danger four years later of losing to Mitt Romney; he won comfortably.

Today’s polling data mean next to nothing. Trump is going on trial on at least two of the indictments leveled against him prior to the GOP primary season. Americans are going to get a snootful from courtrooms about the way he conducted himself during his time in office and, most damaging, after he lost the 2020 election.

I am going to stand squarely on my view that Donald Trump is not electable in 2024. Period. He has no vision for the future, other than telling us how he intends to exact revenge on his foes. His unfitness for public office cannot be stated any more starkly than that.

The polling data will be there to remind us … in real time.

local news, State news

Biden showing strength in Texas? Hmm … still looking for it

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Let me be clear that the observation I am about to offer is purely anecdotal and based only on what my wife and I have observed up close while traveling through Texas.

It is that I am having a bit of difficulty understanding how the public opinion polls released lately can show Joe Biden tied with or leading Donald J. Trump in the race for president of the United States of America.

My observation is based on the absence of any Biden signs showing support for the presumed Democratic presidential nominee. Trump, meanwhile, enjoys at least a smidgen of lawn sign support that we have seen as we motored our way south from the Metroplex and into the Hill Country.

Before you climb all over me, chewing me up one side and down the other, I want to stipulate that I understand that lawn signs comprise a fleeting indicator public opinion. There’s nothing scientific about this observation. However, I try to add 2 plus 2; it still comes up 4. Biden’s reported Texas support, based on polling results, doesn’t seem to add up, based only on what I have noticed with my own eyes.

There might be a hidden Biden vote, one that keeps people from exhibiting their support in a visible fashion. You hear a bit these days about vandalism committed on those with certain political leanings. There also are reports of Trumpkins being a bit more, um, vehement in support of their guy.

I want to believe the public opinion polling that suggests a Trump-Biden contest in Texas is going to be a highly competitive contest. It fills me with hope that Trump will spend money in this state that he might otherwise spend in a more traditional “battleground” state.

We’ll keep traveling around the state. I also will keep my eyes peeled for signs — no pun intended — of Joe Biden strength in Texas. I remain hopeful it’s out there … somewhere.

national news, political news

Wishing media could dial back Biden’s poll reporting

The media are having a field day reporting on Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s spectacular poll ratings against Donald J. Trump Sr.

Biden is leading Trump by double digits, the media tell us. Biden is leading Trump in virtually all the critical “swing states,” they report. Biden might already have enough Electoral College votes in the bank to assure his election in November, the reporting continues.

I want the media to dial it back. Why? Because it is beginning to fill me with a sense of hope that might not hold up as we head down the stretch toward Election Day.

My memory is vivid on some things. One of those matters involves what the media reported at this stage of the 2016 campaign. They said Hillary Clinton would cruise to an easy election.

I bought that narrative four years ago. I was so confident that I attended an election-night watch party with my wife at some friends’ house in Amarillo. We went there expecting Hillary Clinton to make a victory speech upon getting the concession call from Donald Trump.

Uhh, it didn’t happen. My worst political nightmare came to pass on election night 2016.

I am acutely aware that Joe Biden doesn’t carry nearly the negative baggage that Clinton did against Trump. I also am aware that much of Trump’s message that sold against Clinton is hitting the deck with a thud against Biden.

We have an economy in collapse, the nation’s response to the pandemic has been disastrous. Trump is campaigning against his own record as president, if you allow me to parse the rhetoric he keeps using.

I know the media have a role to play and a job to do. Part of all that is to tell us what the polling is telling us about the race as it develops. It’s just making me nervous.