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U.S.-Russia relations in freezer

Let’s not call it Cold War 2.0, at least not yet.

The New York Times reports that the Ukraine crisis involving the Russian takeover of Crimea signals a deepening freezing of relations between the world lone superpower and one of its rivals for international supremacy.

The United States won the first Cold War partly because the then-Soviet Union bankrupted itself by trying to out-muscle its American rivals. It didn’t have the resources to keep up. The United States won. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Russia emerged a damaged, highly corrupt nation.

What’s happening now in Ukraine isn’t the first such land grab that the Russians have completed. They did the same thing in Georgia in 2008. Ukraine’s unrest made Moscow nervous for the ethnic Russians in Crimea, which voted to secede from Ukraine.

Where do U.S.-Russia relations go from here? Into the tank, according to the New York Times.

The Times’s Peter Baker reports: “The decision by President Vladimir V. Putin to snatch Crimea away from Ukraine, celebrated in a defiant treaty-signing ceremony in the Kremlin on Tuesday, threatens to usher in a new, more dangerous era. If it is not the renewed Cold War that some fear, it seems likely to involve a sustained period of confrontation and alienation that will be hard to overcome. The next reset, if there ever is one, for the moment appears far off and far-fetched.”

Against this backdrop we have critics of President Obama pushing him to do more than he’s done. Obama’s response has been to rely heavily on international allies to join in condemning the Russians’ efforts to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty. Russia, of course, is having none of it.

What does the United States do? What can the lone superpower do? The hard reality is that our hands are tied, except to deny Russia involvement in high-level economic summits, such as the G-7 meeting about to occur next week in The Netherlands. It should be the G-8, but Russian strongman Vladimir Putin won’t be there.

The rivalry between the United States and Russia has just gotten a good bit frostier.

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It's the uncertainty that is most painful

The people who love those who were aboard Malaysia Air Flight 370 are enduring the worst of this tragedy.

They are waiting for any hint, a clue, a tiny tidbit of knowledge about their fate. Absent that, their minds are playing terrible tricks on them. They are having fanciful dreams of a miracle that those aboard the plane that vanished without a trace — so far — after taking off March 8 from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia en route to Beijing.

I know a little bit about what they’re going through. I’ll share a brief version of a personal tragedy in my own family’s history.

On the morning of Sept. 8, 1980, I received a phone call at work. The voice on the other end told me my father was missing after a boating accident just north of Vancouver, British Columbia. Four men were aboard a small craft; two of them were safe; the other two were missing. Dad was one of the men missing — and he was presumed dead.

I took a deep breath, called my wife and went home to prepare to tell my mother the terrible news.

The next day, I boarded a small plane to the fishing camp where Dad and his business associates were staying. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police were conducting a search of the saltwater inlet for any sign of Dad’s body. After two days they hadn’t found anything.

I returned home and we all waited for news. Meanwhile, my mind was fantasizing about Dad. He was alive, traipsing around in the forest, undetected by civilization.

I knew intellectually that wasn’t the case. I knew he was gone. But we didn’t have any tangible evidence of what happened to him.

Eight days later, the evidence arrived with a phone call from the Mounties. They found Dad. I was relieved and heartbroken at the same time. But we had closure and were able to say goodbye properly.

This is what those who are waiting for news about Flight 370 might be going through. They well could be clinging to the thinnest reed of hope that their loved ones are miraculously OK; that they landed on a remote island; that they’re waiting for someone to fly overhead to detect them, rescue them and return them to those who love them.

Those loved ones know better, but their minds and hearts could be playing terrible tricks on them.

Their pain defies description.

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Get tougher with Putin? How … precisely?

You knew it would happen.

President Barack Obama would announce new sanctions against Russia for its incursion into Crimea and its endorsement of a decision by ethnic Russians to separate from Ukraine.

Then the Republican opposition here at home would criticize the president for not being tough enough on the Russians. Of course the GOP would oppose it.

http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/europe/201132-republicans-demand-obama-get-tougher-with-putin-on-ukraine

They want the United States to expel Russia from the Group of Eight industrialized nations. They insist that the United States dramatically boost its exports of natural gas to undermine the Russians’ economy. They want more economic pressure applied.

What’s next? Do we go to war with Russia?

White House press secretary Jay Carney did manage to put the GOP call for tougher action into some perspective when asked today to comment on the Republican criticism. “As others have said, the fact that President George W. Bush invaded Iraq and had two ongoing wars in the Middle East didn’t seem to affect Russia’s calculations when it came to its actions in Georgia. So there’s a problem with the logic,” he said, referring to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, which also — like Ukraine — is a former Soviet-bloc state.

Barack Obama has limited options, as does the rest of the world that opposes what Russia has done, which is to interfere directly in the affairs of another sovereign nation.

Obama already has declared his intention to impose a heavy cost to Russia for its incursion into Crimea and for its meddling in Ukraine’s political dispute.

The GOP peanut gallery needs to pipe down while our head of state seeks — in conjunction with our allies — a suitable method for making the Russians pay for its blatant violation of international law.

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This isn't the Dust Bowl, but …

I cannot even pretend to understand what Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle residents endured in the 1930s when the Dust Bowl blew their livelihoods away — and killed many folks in the process.

However, the dust that has been blowing the past few days is getting very tiresome and more than a bit worrisome.

Today was another one of those days when the dust blew in from the north and west over much of West Texas. The Weather Channel led with it on its early-evening newscast, replacing the late-winter snow storm that is pounding the East Coast.

How does this condition ever end?

Well, let’s look at the obvious solution: Rain needs to fall. A lot of rain would be good.

Two and a half months into 2014 and our rainfall deficit is beginning to look grim. We’re about half of where we need to be a this point in the year, according to the National Weather Service. The March winds that are well-known to us here in the Texas Panhandle have kicked in and the topsoil that hasn’t been dampened is being lifted into the air and taken to God knows where.

There might be some good news in the offing. I was visiting the other day with a water conservation district official who told me he understands there’s a “48 percent chance that El Nino will return this spring.” That means we’ve got a nearly one in two chance that the Pacific Ocean currents will bring more moisture inland, which is what the El Nino current usually does.

Of course that also means that we’ve got about the same likelihood of either the conditions staying the same or the La Nina current will take over, meaning even drier-than-normal conditions will prevail over the region.

Those of us who weren’t around during the Dust Bowl do not really grasp what the region’s older residents went through more than seven decades ago. The survivors of that terrible time no doubt remember how it used to be and may be shrugging their shoulders at what’s occurring today.

We all have a common desire. We need rain. Now!

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Vlad says U.S. crossed the line? What line?

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks to his parliament had me turning to my atlas.

He told Russian lawmakers that the United States and its allies “crossed the line” by imposing sanctions on Russia for its incursion into Crimea, a section of Ukraine.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/putin-slams-west-calls-end-cold-war-rhetoric-n55386

I pulled my atlas out and looked at the map of Europe. Yep, there it was: Ukraine includes the Crimea Peninsula; it’s all part of the same sovereign country, or at least it was until Crimea seceded from Ukraine over the weekend.

Putin ordered thousands of Russian troops into Crimea to “protect” ethnic Russians there. He’s now officially recognized the creation of this new entity in southern Ukraine.

But he’s scolding the United States because we refuse to recognize the incursion — or invasion — of Russian forces into Crimea? We were “unprofessional”?

“We have to stop this Cold War rhetoric and realize that Russia is an independent nation … you have to respect those interests of Russia,” Putin told the parliament. True enough, Mr. Strongman/President. No one doubts Russia’s independence. What’s at issue here is why Russia seems to doubt Ukraine’s independence, just as it did in 2008 when it doubted Georgia’s independence when it sent troops into that former Soviet satellite republic.

Russia is in the catbird seat here. The international community can do only so much to Russia. There will be no military counter-offensive to boot the Russians out of Crimea, or air strikes against military facilities elsewhere in the massive country. There will be further economic sanctions and political isolation measures taken.

Putin can criticize the United States all he wants. We are, after all, the biggest of the big dogs seeking to pressure Russia to rethink its own interference in another nation’s internal struggle.

For him, though, to say the United States has “crossed the line” is laughable on its face.

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Let's stop the hijacking theory on Flight 370

Let’s clear the air right now.

Malaysian Air Flight 370 was not hijacked and flown to some remote location where no man has been. I keep hearing that thesis kicked around on cable news shows from so-called “experts.”

Allow me this brief primer on why I think the hijacking theory is bogus.

Hijackers take planes for one reason: to gain publicity for whatever cause they want to promote. It could be merely for themselves. But, hey, that’s a cause too.

The Boeing 777 disappeared 10 days ago. If someone had hijacked the bird and its 239 passengers and crew, we would know it by now. Heck, we would have known about it the moment it landed. That’s how hijackers do it.

The second reason the hijacking theory is bogus is that even though the satellite technology so far has failed to find any sign of the plane, you need to land these birds on land. To do that you are necessarily going to fly through radar grids that will detect them. Some control tower on Planet Earth would know where the plane has landed and that information would be made public the moment it touched down.

This mystery is deep, baffling, maddening and it is terribly tragic for the families awaiting news of their loved ones aboard Flight 370.

The hijacking theory, though, needs to be dismissed as the joke it has become.

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How should one feel about a hater's death?

News that Fred Phelps is near death in a care facility leaves me terribly conflicted.

Phelps is the founder of the Westboro Baptist “Church.” I put the word “Church” in quotation marks because what he preaches doesn’t comport with my view of Christianity.

He preaches hate for gay people. He’s led his Westboro congregation on demonstrations at military funerals protesting this country’s policy toward gay Americans. You know, that the country seeks to afford gay citizens the same rights as everyone else.

Phelps’s “church” doesn’t see it that way.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2014/0316/Fred-Phelps-founder-of-rabid-Westboro-Baptist-Church-said-near-death

He’s brought his hate brigade to the Texas Panhandle on occasion to protest at these service. There have been counter-protests — usually led by motorcycle clubs riding vehicles with very loud engines — to demonstrate on behalf of the young warriors who are being honored at these services.

Now he’s on his way out. His soul is headed somewhere. I’m guessing he hopes he’s going to heaven. I have not particular insight on where the souls of men such as this go.

My conflict is difficult at this moment as I ponder the end of Phelps’s life on Earth.

I detest with every fiber of my being what he did, what he asked his congregants to do, what they agreed to do and all that he and they stood for.

Speaking only for myself, I do not consider the Westboro “Church” as following the same biblical principles that I’ve followed my entire life. They follow some radicalized version of the Bible, not unlike the Islamic terrorists who have perverted their own holy book to achieve some evil ends.

Phelps’s world view and how he interprets Scripture as it regards homosexuality is anathema to decent people of all stripes.

Should I be happy that he’s dead? I don’t know. Someone once said that he doesn’t wish death on others but he reads some obituaries with more pleasure than others. I guess that’s how I’ll feel when Phelps finally checks out.

No one will know what goes through his mind and soul when that moment arrives. I hope he seeks forgiveness from whatever god he worships. And I reckon if my own God is prepared to forgive him, then who is anyone to deny forgiveness for Fred Phelps?

I’ll bid my so long now, Mr. Phelps. Have a nice trip to the Great Beyond … wherever it is.

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Sanctions welcome, although likely futile

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President Obama today imposed tightening sanctions on Russians who are involved directly with impeding Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Will they work? Not likely. Are they welcome? Certainly.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/russia-sanctions-ukraine-obama-executive-order-104728.html?hp=t1

Obama invoked his executive authority to punish those who are involved in the Russian arms industry or those who provide “material support” to forces involved in the occupation of Crimea, a region in Ukraine that over the weekend voted overwhelmingly to integrate into Russia.

The sanctions do set a new standard for punishing Russia in the post-Cold War era. They are “by far the most extensive sanctions imposed against Russia since the end of the Cold War,” an official said, according to Politico.com.

Is this all the world can do in response to what has become a virtual Russian invasion of a sovereign nation? Probably yes, short of a military strike against Russia. No one in their right mind is calling for a “military option” in response to this crisis — although former Vice President Dick Cheney keeps suggesting that those options do exist “without putting boots on the ground.” What hogwash.

All that’s really left for the world is to isolate Russia, which President Obama insists is going to inflict pain on the one-time Evil Empire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t likely to reverse course just because of these sanctions. He’s already invested too much of his own reputation in this incursion to back out now.

The hope on this side of the dispute, though, should be that the United States follow through with what it already has announced and then ratchets it up even more if Russia intensifies its interference in the affairs of what used to be an independent nation.

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Theories abound over Flight 370 fate

Everyone seems to have a theory about what happened to Malaysian Air Flight 370.

With those theories, the emotions of those most intimately involved — the family members and other loved ones of the 239 people aboard the jetliner — are pulled and pushed in every direction imaginable.

My heart breaks for those who are waiting for some sign, any sign, of the fate of those on board the Boeing 777.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-plane-up-to-speed/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Was the plane hijacked?

Did someone on board sabotage the aircraft?

Did the plane lose cabin pressure and fly on for hours before crashing?

Did the Triple Seven crash into the ocean, into the jungle, the Himalayas … where?

Is it sitting on a remote airfield in the middle of nowhere?

All these theories are being kicked around on various print and broadcast media.

No matter how this story turns out, there will be some serious questions to ask the authorities in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where Flight 370 originated en route to Beijing, China.

I don’t know, nor will I dare predict, how it will end. It well might be that the plane crashed somewhere and it’s just taking the world an inordinately long time to detect the wreckage. It well might be a cut-and-dried mechanical failure of some sort.

You can rest assured, though, that everyone who proclaims some expertise on airline safety will venture ideas, theories and recommended solutions.

This story is going to remain on our conscience for a very long time after searchers find the airplane — intact or in pieces.

Meantime, let’s pray for strength for the loved ones who must endure this torture.

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Dewhurst about to take a huge fall … maybe

If the Texas Monthly blogger and editor Paul Burka is right, Texas is about to witness one of the more stunning political collapses in recent memory.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is in a runoff for his job with state Sen. Dan Patrick. The two Republicans finished at the top of a four-man primary field earlier this month. The runoff is set for May 27.

Burka thinks Dewhurst is toast.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/lost-causes

If it comes to pass and Patrick wins the runoff, Dewhurst’s fall from the pinnacle will be felt and heard all across the state.

It wasn’t supposed to end this way.

Dewhurst burst onto the state political scene when he was elected land commissioner in 1998. He parlayed that victory into a successful campaign for lieutenant governor in 2002. He then was going to bide his time while awaiting the retirement of one of our state’s U.S. senators. That opportunity came in 2012 when Kay Bailey Hutchison stepped aside.

Dewhurst then had his head handed to him by a young upstart named Ted Cruz, who took him to a runoff in the 2012 Republican primary and then defeated Dewhurst in the runoff. Cruz managed to outflank Dewhurst on the right and won the hearts and minds of the conservative wing of the GOP, which was enough to carry him to victory in the 2012 fall election.

Now, Dewhurst is in trouble again.

He has governed as a moderate. I guess, though, he took a vow never to be “Cruzed” again, so he’s staked out some tough positions on immigration, on public education funding, on the Affordable Care Act — and has looked totally uncomfortable trying to sell himself as a new incarnation.

The Dewhurst I’ve known and covered for years has been extremely detail-oriented and has managed to outwork just about everyone in state government. That was his big selling point.

Patrick then came along, finishing first in the primary and apparently is poised to win the GOP nomination.

I’m not sure how Dewhurst is going to pull this runoff out. The other two GOP primary candidates, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, haven’t endorsed anyone yet. Maybe their endorsement of Dewhurst could pull a few thousand votes into the incumbent’s column. Neither Patterson or Staples seem all that enamored of Patrick, who’s the fiery one of the bunch.

The mighty do fall hard in Texas. It’s looking as though the next big hitter just might be about to hit the deck.

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