For the Republicans who think President Obama, who’s been in office for not quite a year, is toast if he runs for re-election in 2012, I have a two-word response: Ronald Reagan.

In 1981, Reagan took office with the economy in serious decline. In 1982, the president’s party suffered significant losses in the off-year congressional elections, losing 27 House seats to the Democrats. President Reagan’s approval ratings fell dramatically. The GOP was in a state of woeful disrepair.

Then, just like that, it was “morning in America.” The Democrats nominated a candidate, Walter Mondale, who vowed to raise taxes. President Reagan seized on an economic reversal.

How did the 1984 election turn out? Well, the president came within 3,000 votes in Minnesota — Mondale’s home state — of scoring a 50-state sweep on his way to a rousing re-election victory.

It’s also helpful to remember that Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party suffered big losses in 1994. President Clinton, though, won re-election handily two years later.

Will a similar outcome occur in 2012? I have no way of knowing that. I do know this, however: It is far too early in the current president’s first term to be writing his political obituary.