Midterm Election Day 2022 is now in the books and I am still trying to wrap my arms around what in the name of political punditry occurred.
Republicans were supposed to capture complete control of Congress, flipping perhaps dozens of seats in the House and pilfering perhaps a six to eight Senate seats.
It didn’t happen. Democrats well might retain control of the Senate; indeed, if the Georgia runoff goes to my satisfaction and a Democratic incumbent wins re-election in Arizona, then Democrats might pick up on seat in their majority.
Oh, and the House? That remains an open question. The GOP is poised to take control, but with a fraction of the seats they expected to gain. Maybe by three or four? Several contests remain too close to call, so they could go either way.
I am left two days after Election Day to scratch my head and wonder: What the heck is going on?
I am trying to parse some of the reasons for this unexpected result. Donald Trump might have been poison to many of the MAGA adherents who fell short. President Biden’s message that “democracy is on the ballot” might have stuck more tightly than anyone imagined. Women might have turned out to protest the assault on their right to decide how to manage their own body.
Not every pundit saw a Red Wave swamping the political landscape. They were laughed or jeered out of every room where they offered a contrary view.
I guess they were smarter than many of us cared to admit.
Whatever. Midterm Election Day 2022 has provided yet another example of how topsy-turvy conventional wisdom has become. What you think will happen almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for something else occurring.
In this case, I welcome the surprise.