Tag Archives: brokered convention

Just suppose the Democrats turn on Hillary, Bernie . . .

Dewey-convention-photo

Whenever the subject of “brokered convention” comes up in political circles, it always refers to Republicans.

The idea goes something like this: Several GOP candidates will remain in the race, dividing up the delegates among themselves, denying the frontrunner — whoever it is — the majority needed to sew up the nomination.

The delegates gather in Cleveland and then bicker among themselves, nominating someone on the umpteenth ballot.

It’s not likely to happen. But it could.

However, let’s play take this game a bit further.

What if the Democratic candidates do the same thing?

Two of them, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, are fighting for supremacy; a third candidate, Martin O’Malley, lags far, far behind.

But what if Sanders upsets Hillary Clinton in Iowa and then beats her in New Hampshire, which is next door to his home state of Vermont. He builds momentum heading into South Carolina. Perhaps he wins there, too. Then the fight is on.

Meanwhile, you’ve got O’Malley out there picking up stray delegates here and there in those primaries where winners do not take all.

Clinton and Sanders carve each other up to deny both of them enough delegates to get a majority at their convention.

Democrats gather in Philadelphia and commence a floor fight. No one emerges as the consensus. To whom do they turn?

Oh yeah. The vice president of the United States, Joseph Biden.

Will that happen? It’s far less likely to occur than a Republican donnybrook.

Then again . . .

 

 

The 2016 GOP presidential nominee will be . . .

Pelosi-Ryan-jpg

. . .  Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.

OK, I didn’t just make that up. I read about such a scenario in Roll Call, which has put together an analysis that makes a Ryan nomination a distinct possibility.

Ryan had to be dragged kicking and screaming — or so he would have us believe — into the race for House speaker after John Boehner quit abruptly this past autumn. Boehner had grown weary of fighting with the TEA Party insurgents within his House GOP caucus. So, he quit the top job and quit his congressional seat, too.

Ryan emerged as the speaker after laying down some rules for how he wanted to become the Man of the House. He stipulated that he wanted every Republican to want him to take the job.

So, how does this guy become the 2016 nominee?

Roll Call thinks the Republicans might get a brokered convention in Cleveland next summer. None of the candidates still running will have enough delegates to secure the nomination outright. A floor fight will ensue. Someone will come up with the idea that they need a unifying candidate.

Enter . . . Paul Ryan.

There’s one way to look at this: Ryan at one time wanted to be president. He was, after all, the 2012 GOP vice-presidential nominee on the ticket led by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. I’m going to presume that Ryan agreed that he could serve as president if by chance Romney got elected and something were to happen that would require Ryan to step into the top job.

It’s not beyond reason, thus, to believe Ryan still harbors latent presidential aspirations. Right? Right.

But apart from how Republican convention delegates settle this madhouse contest this summer, the very idea of a political convention actually being tossed into pandemonium intrigues the daylights out of me.

The closest a major-party nominating convention came to that level that I can remember was in 1976, when former California Gov. Ronald Reagan mounted a challenge to President Ford’s expected GOP nomination. The president prevailed, but only after some serious dickering on the convention floor.

Will this year’s Republican convention become the circus that the parties used to experience?

I hope so. It’s great political theater.