Well, itâs almost all said and done. Two men have taken their case to the country, although theyâve delivered it in person to a mere fraction of it.
Residents in about 10 states have seen more of President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney than many of them have cared to see. These are the residents of those so-called âbattleground states.â Texas isnât one of them. We havenât been graced much by the presence of either man. Democrats donât care for a state that votes so heavily Republican and, well, Republicans just take Texas for granted.
What will happen Tuesday? Will Obama win re-election or will Romney score an upset?
Every major pollster in the country seems now to be saying the same thing: Itâll be Obama by a whisker. I am believing what theyâre saying.
Iâll venture this guess, though. The Electoral College victory wonât be all that close. I think the president will win with 303 electoral votes, down a good bit by the 365 electoral votes he won in 2008. Popular vote? Iâm guessing itâll be around a 1.5 percent Obama victory, making it a clean win, with no popular vote/electoral vote split, a la 2000 and Bush v. Gore.
Joe Scarborough made a curious observation this morning on his âMorning Joeâ talk show on MSNBC. He thinks a Romney upset is quite possible. Scarborough â a former congressman â is a loyal Republican and Iâll concede his wishful thinking. I wonât concede what he said today about âno one seeing the Reagan revolutionâ coming in 1980. The folks who did see it coming worked within President Carterâs re-election campaign. Carterâs team knew by the weekend before the â80 election that the president was toast. The undecided voting bloc broke decisively for Ronald Reagan at the end, giving him a big victory. The Carter people broke the news to their guy three days before the votes were counted.
Is a similar result possible Tuesday? I donât think so. Polling is a lot better these days. There are many more polls. All of them taken together say the same thing: Obama in a squeaker.
Letâs hold on, though, for a long night.