The upcoming runoff between Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and state Sen. Dan Patrick is going to send a stark message about the state of the Texas Republican Party.

If Dewhurst wins the runoff — which is beginning to look unlikely — the so-called “establishment wing” of the state party will have fended off a major uprising with the GOP ranks. If Patrick wins, well, Katy bar the door.

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/03/31/analysis-gop-year-hunter/

It still is a bit of a stunner to me that Dewhurst is in this position. He lost the U.S. Senate Republican primary contest in 2012 to Ted Cruz. He then staked out a far more conservative posture during the 2013 Texas legislative session, seeking to avoid another challenge from his right. It didn’t work, as Patrick emerged as the favorite to defeat Dewhurst in the runoff set for May 27.

Dewhurst is an establishment kind of guy. He’s wealthy, well-connected with big-time donors and has shown an ability to work with Texas Senate Democrats as well as Republicans. He’s a conservative, but under the new rules that define conservatism, he isn’t conservative enough.

Patrick is another kind of Republican. He’s thrown down the gauntlet to moderates within his party and to Democrats that, by golly, Texas is a conservative state and he intends to run the state Senate that way. He has blasted Dewhurst for giving key Senate committee chairmanships to Democrats.

It appears to be working. Patrick is a pistol and he’s firing live political ammo at the other guy constantly.

If Dewhurst can hold on to this party’s nomination, he’ll get to face one of his Senate colleagues, Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, in the fall. I am not familiar with their relationship, but something tells me he’ll be a kinder, gentler Republican nominee than Patrick.

If it’s Patrick vs. Van de Putte, look for another kind of fall campaign altogether.

My choice in this runoff? I’m going to pull for Dewhurst.