One of the interesting things to watch in this year’s mid-term elections in November will be the returns in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is in the Eastern Time Zone and we’ll know right away whether a U.S. Senate seat flips from Democratic to Republican. If it turns from Blue to Red, I’m quite sure that the Democratic Party is going to be in for a very long, miserable, painful evening of watching election returns.
Why is the New Hampshire race so critical?
For starters, the incumbent is a Democrat seeking her second term, Jean Shaheen, a popular former governor. Additionally, her main Republican challenger is a carpetbagger, a former senator from across the state line in Massachusetts, Scott Brown.
Brown also is a big hitter with some serious star power, owing to his first term in the Senate representing the Bay State. He was elected to the seat held for a zillion years by the late Ted Kennedy, who died in 2009. Brown lost his seat when he ran for re-election in 2012.
He then set his sights up yonder, in New Hampshire. He has formed an exploratory committee, which usually is a formality preceding a declaration of his candidacy. He’ll declare his candidacy soon.
Shaheen’s popularity is being undermined by the unpopularity of the man in the White House, Democratic President Barack Obama. The president’s low poll numbers will provide Brown the best opportunity to exploit Shaheen’s incumbency.
Whether it will be enough for him to win is anyone’s guess at the moment.
If he does win, and the news networks project Brown winning in New Hampshire early in the evening, then I’m thinking the Senate will be destined to turn from Democratic to Republican control when the night is over. The GOP needs to pick up six Senate seats to win control of the place. A Brown victory will serve as a precursor to a long night, indeed, for Democrats.
However, a Shaheen victory might spell a different kind of evening for Democrats and Republicans.
My guess right now is that a Shaheen win could reduce Republican gains to something just short of outright control of the Senate.
Even so, Democrats all across the country at this moment should be afraid … very afraid.