Handicapping political races is among the more dicey endeavors I ever have tried, which is why I am shying away from handicapping the 2022 midterm contests.
Specifically, it is dangerous to predict how the midterm elections will turn out, which party will control Congress’s two legislative chambers.
I do have an idea based on trends I keep hearing about.
The U.S. Senate might not flip from Democratic to Republican control. What’s happening? It appears the GOP is shooting itself in both feet by fielding certifiable nut cases in key races they had hoped to keep or flip into GOP control.
Mehmet Oz is running for the Senate in Pennsylvania. One problem: He doesn’t live there; he hangs his hat in New Jersey. His opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, appears to be pulling away. GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, so that one might flip from R to D.
Ohio might go from red to blue also. Republican Sen. Rob Portman is retiring. Rep. Tim Ryan is the Democrat running to succeed him. The GOP challenger is J.D. Vance, another nut job. Ryan is leading and he, too, could pull away. Another state might go from R to D.
Democrats appear set to hold onto two seats formerly thought to be ripe for the picking. Sen. Mark Kelly is looking strong against his GOP challenger. My favorite contest this year could be Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock vs. GOP dumbass Herchel Walker. The Rs thought Walker could pilfer this one. They are wrong. Walker’s only claim to any sort of fame is his stellar college and pro football career. Beyond that? This man might be the most unfit candidate ever to suit up for a political office.
One more: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin might get tossed out by Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. Oh, how I would love to see that occur.
The Senate stands at 50-50. When the ballots are counted in November, it could be a 53-47 Democratic majority.
The House? That one looks more problematic for Democrats, although I keep seeing that the projections for a “Red Wave” are diminishing from a tsunami to a pebble in a puddle.
It is going to be an invigorating and likely angst-ridden election season coming up. The spirit of our democratic process — despite Donald Trump’s efforts to subvert it — appears to be alive and well.