I have to agree with the assessment being kicked around that Beto O’Rourke’s decision to run for Texas governor in 2022 carries far greater risk than his near-victory in 2018 in a race for the U.S. Senate.
Why is that? Because the incumbent Republican he is challenging this time, Greg Abbott, is far more likable and is in a politically stronger place than the GOP incumbent he faced in 2018, Ted Cruz.
O’Rourke came within 3% of grounding the Cruz Missile. Polls show him trailing Abbott narrowly this time (so far). However, his 2020 Democratic Party primary presidential bid ended badly and he said some things about guns that are going to haunt him when he hits the trail in Texas.
He said that “hell yes” he would take people’s assault rifles. Abbott has morphed that statement into “Beto will take your guns.” That won’t hurt him in gun-happy Texas? Yeah. It will.
I wish O’Rourke well as he campaigns for governor. I want him to win bigly. I want Abbott to be shown the door and for Abbott to disappear from the political stage.
I wonder about whether Beto O’Rourke’s time has arrived — yet again! — for him to stage the kind of political upset that many of us desire to see happen.
Beto O’Rourke enters 2022 a weaker candidate with a harder race | The Texas Tribune
Abbott has said “bring it!” when talking about O’Rourke’s candidacy. Fine, but O’Rourke also will have plenty with which to work.
Abbott’s miserable pandemic response, his support of an overly harsh ban on abortion, his support of efforts to suppress voters in Texas all can become the stuff of snappy campaign ads. Indeed, Abbott must be made to answer for all of it and I hope O’Rourke — presuming he wins the Democratic Party primary next spring — will make the governor answer.
Let’s be clear on one point. Beto O’Rourke faces a steep climb.