{"id":850,"date":"2012-10-26T21:50:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-26T21:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/highplainsblogger.wordpress.com\/2012\/10\/26\/repeat-of-2000-beginning-to-take-shape"},"modified":"2012-10-26T21:50:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-26T21:50:00","slug":"repeat-of-2000-beginning-to-take-shape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/?p=850","title":{"rendered":"Repeat of 2000 beginning to take shape"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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As I look at the myriad polls out there handicapping the Barack Obama-Mitt Romney race for the White House, I am beginning to ponder what I thought once was impossible.<\/p>\n

An electoral vote\/popular vote disparity. One of these guys is going to get more popular votes but will lose the contest in the Electoral College. Shades of the 2000 election and Bush v. Gore anyone?<\/p>\n

Romney\u2019s lead in the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls is less than 1 percent nationally, which is still within any reasonable statistical margin of error; these margins usually run in the plus-or-minus 3 percent range. That means the race is a dead heat.<\/p>\n

But if the contest finishes the way the RCP poll averages suggest, then Romney will win the popular vote.<\/p>\n

As most Americans understand, though, presidential races are decided by the Electoral College. Candidates win the states\u2019 electoral votes if they win states\u2019 popular vote. Texas is certain to swing its 38 electoral votes to Romney, so that\u2019s not even a topic of discussion.<\/p>\n

Those same polls are continuing to show the president\u2019s lead in critical swing states holding up. Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa still lean toward Obama, with Romney leading in North Carolina and Florida \u2013 depending on the poll.<\/p>\n

By my calculation, I figure Obama is going to win with something like 294 to 303 electoral votes, mainly by holding on to most of those swing states. Romney\u2019s route to the 270 electoral votes needed to win remains quite steep. As the pundits keep saying, he has to thread that needle perfectly and win a huge majority of swing states in play. <\/p>\n

How will Obama pull this thing out? Well, I figure the more lunacy is uttered by Romney supporter Donald Trump the better it is for the president. Trump\u2019s latest idiotic statements about giving Obama $5 million if he produces his college transcripts and travel documentation simply is the stuff of a certifiable loon. <\/p>\n

And yet the guy keeps getting publicity \u2013 such as right here in this blog. <\/p>\n

Shame on me? Hardly. I\u2019m glad to bring this baloney to people\u2019s attention.<\/p>\n

I had hoped the election would end cleanly, with one guy \u2013 preferably the president \u2013 winning it without any disparity between the electoral and popular votes. I retain a glimmer of hope that will happen.<\/p>\n

That glimmer is starting to flicker. It\u2019s looking like Americans are in for a long night Nov. 6.<\/p>\n\n

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As I look at the myriad polls out there handicapping the Barack Obama-Mitt Romney race for the White House, I am beginning to ponder what I thought once was impossible. An electoral vote\/popular vote disparity. One of these guys is going to get more popular votes but will lose the contest in the Electoral College. … Continue reading Repeat of 2000 beginning to take shape<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/850\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/highplainsblogger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}